불확실성과 위험, 둘의 차이를 이해하자

Why invest in transformational themes now? Key message After a period of volatility, the valuations of the stocks selected for our Transformational Innovation Opportunities (TRIOs)—Artificial intelligence, Power and resources, and Longevity—have recovered. We believe the longterm growth story remains firmly intact for these themes. Structural shifts in artificial intelligence, energy infrastructure, and health care are expanding global profit pools, and may help investors capture durable, secular growth One liner Innovation remains key to long-term returns—we see AI, electrification, and longevity driving over 50% of global corporate profit growth in the next decade 01 Market volatility is likely to persist in the near term. • Trade uncertainty remains elevated as the deadline to the pause in Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs approaches. • US fiscal concerns are elevated following the passage of the ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_LoLqdfpALI 하반기 IT 지출 미룰 것 가속 22% 변화 없다 34% 연기 또는 유예 44% 하지만, AI, 자동화 기술에 대한 투자 지출을 늘릴 것 AI 에이전트 투자 1년 내 수익화 63% 는 향후 12-24 개월 AI 기술을 실험 및 투자할 의지와 예산이 있다 AI 는 모든 것을 수십년, 수년 이 아닌 몇 달 만에 빠르게 바꾸고 있다 ROI 1년 이내 예상 향후 3-5년 내 필요한 직원 수 줄어들 것 갈수록 낮아지는 직원들의 근로 의지를 보완할 유일한 수단은 IT IT 소프트웨어 지출 계획 빨강: 전년대비 하락 파랑: 전년대비 상승 AI 투자 전략 자체 AI 배치 위한 GPU/가속 컴퓨팅 공급 부족 대부분 해소 그래도 하드웨어 투자 연평균 +40% 계획 자체적인 AI 에이전트 개발 대신 SaaS/애플리케이션 벤더로부터 구매 인상적인 순서: MSFT (30%), Open AI(22%), Google(17%), Amazon(5.4%), SalesForce(4.8%), UiPath(3.6%), 등 자체 구축 데이터센터 투자대신 Public Cloud 중심 투자 계획 AI Workload 처리를 위한 데이터센터 전략 Public Cloud로 이전 54% On promise 유지 또는 전환 25% Standout Companies Across Spending Intentions, AI, Cloud Plans The best performing MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, SAP, ServiceNow Honorable Databricks, Workday, PaloAlto, Fortinet, Cloudflare, OpenAI Underperforming Confluent, Zoom Video, Akamai, MongoDB, IBM

유동성 심리 펀드멘탈

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm 고용현황보고서의시장반응 발표된 지표가 전망치 컨센서스에 부합했는지 여부가 중요 yes, it was better 시장은 단기적으로 실업률보다 비농업 고용 수치의 증감에 더 민감하게 반응 The 4-week moving average of jobless claims is trending upwards 고용을 특정 숫자로 판단하기보다는, 감소세가 바닥을 찍고 전환하는 구간을 중요 시점으로 판단 There are mixed signals of weakening and resilience, but the job market has been in a downtrend since Jan What Bloomberg Economics Says... “That means the unemployment rate held steady for the ‘wrong’ reasons – not because jobs are plentiful, but because workers are dropping out.” — Anna Wong, Stuart Paul and Eliza Winger Takeaways Slowing Job Growth: The economy added 139,000 jobs in May, a notable slowdown from previous months and years, indicating a cooling labor market. Stable Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, suggesting a consistent level of job availability for those seeking work. Labor Force Contraction: The labor force participation saw a significant decrease, with 625,000 fewer individuals working or looking for work, the largest drop since December 2023. Mixed Sector Performance and Slowing Wages: While service sectors like healthcare continued to add jobs, manufacturing and retail trade experienced declines. Additionally, wage growth showed signs of deceleration. Sseveral aspects of the Employment Situation report point to meaningful shifts in the broader economy: Overall Deceleration in Job Growth: The most significant takeaway is the slowdown in the overall pace of job creation. Adding 139,000 jobs in May, while positive, is a considerable deceleration from earlier periods and indicates a cooling of the labor market. This sustained deceleration, alongside downward revisions to prior months' data, signifies a meaningful shift from a rapidly expanding job market to a more moderate one. Contraction in the Labor Force: A decrease of 625,000 in the civilian labor force, the largest such drop since December 2023, is a meaningful sign. It suggests a reduction in the number of people actively participating in the job market, which can have long-term implications for economic growth and labor supply. Sectoral Shifts: While some percentage changes might seem small, the consistent decline in sectors like Manufacturing (down 8,000 jobs) and Retail Trade (down 6,500 jobs), coupled with the very sharp percentage declines in smaller, but relevant, industries like Other motor vehicle dealers (-3.38%) and significant absolute declines in Residential specialty trade contractors (-11,000 jobs), are meaningful. These indicate areas of the economy that are genuinely contracting or facing significant headwinds. Slowing Wage Growth: The ...

미국의 이 말도 안되는 관세는 중국의 영향을 더 키워줄수 있는 기회가 될수도있음. 중국도 미국만큼 큰 소비시장임. 트럼프의 말도 안되는 관세는 Peter Navarro, commerce advisor의 생각. 하버드 PhD로 비지니스는 한번도 안해보고 평생 Academy 에 있었던 대표적인 탁상공론 자로 자기만의 세상에 갖혀살아 세상을 보는 시야가 매우 좁고 똥고집이 매우 강함. 이미 이렇게 된이상 자신이 틀렸다는걸 알아도 게속 고집을 피울 확률이 매우 높음. 많은 나라들이 최근 몇달간 이랬다 저랬다한 트럼프에 매우 지쳐 트럼프가 원하는대로 협상을 안하고 중국처럼 보복관세를 더 때리면서 무역전쟁이 본격화될수 있음. 이렇게 관세를 때리면 모두가 미국에 기면서 협상을 할거라는 것은 미국의 매우 오만한 생각....