https://youtu.be/tcrr2QiXt9M

• https://lilys.ai/digest/1706467?s=1&nid=189055

호숫가의 물이 어디까지 올라올 수 있을까

• 한계수용능력, inflow와 churn이 중요

• 들어오는 것과 나가는 것 외에는 아무 상관 없다

Questions

Q1. You noticed that your power users all have taken some action (e.g. filled out their profile) so you try to encourage all users to fill out their profile to get them more hooked on your product. Does this actually help?

Without this model it’s easy to mislead yourself into thinking it helps. You will probably be able to increase the metric but it may just weaken the correction with power users. However, with this model you just watch your loss % each day and if it doesn’t change then you haven’t had any net impact on retention.

Q1. 파워 유저들이 모두 특정 행동 (예: 프로필 작성)을 했다는 것을 발견하고 모든 유저들에게 프로필 작성을 권장하여 제품 사용을 늘리려고 합니다. 이것이 실제로 도움이 될까요?

이러한 모델 없이는 효과가 있다고 잘못 판단하기 쉽습니다. 지표는 높일 수 있겠지만, 파워 유저와의 상관관계만 약화시킬 수 있습니다. 하지만 이 모델을 사용하면 매일의 이탈률만 지켜보면 되고, 변화가 없다면 리텐션에 실질적인 영향을 주지 못했다는 것을 알 수 있습니다.

Q2. You have 24 hours of downtime, the next day you come back up your traffic id down. Will this have a long-term effect you need to worry about?

Even if your traffic is lowered for a few days, all you have to do is measure your new visitors per day & lost customers per day and you’ll see if your carrying capacity has changed. If it has not changed then you don’t have to worry, you know your traffic will rise back up to your carrying capacity.

Q2. 24시간 동안 서비스가 중단되었고, 다음 날 복구되었을 때 트래픽이 감소했습니다. 장기적으로 우려할 만한 영향이 있을까요?

며칠 동안 트래픽이 감소하더라도, 일일 신규 방문자 수와 이탈 고객 수를 측정하여 수용력(carrying capacity)이 변했는지 확인하면 됩니다. 수용력이 변하지 않았다면 걱정할 필요가 없으며, 트래픽은 다시 수용력 수준으로 회복될 것입니다.

Q3. You have 100K uniques per day and so does your competitor, but are these 100K people who come back everyday or 700K people who each come once per week? Does it matter?

If you’re incorrectly caught up in # of unique visitors per day then this does seem like an important thing. And in fact, if you realize your visitors are not returning as often as your competitors you may even be tempted to spam them regularly because this will increase # of unique visitors each day and can give you the illusion of improving things. In reality, a move like this would probably increase your % of lost each day and hurt your carrying capacity but you wouldn’t notice this for a while because the increased # of uniques each day would mask the harm. However, with the model your emphasis is on # of customers not # of visitors. You’ll quickly realize that you don’t care how frequently people visit as a primary factor; if it doesn’t impact # of new customers per ...