https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/eu-joint-funds-gaining-support-as-leaders-confront-defense-needs Discussions are gathering pace in the European Union on how to increase defense spending, with joint financing becoming a realistic option for a growing list of leaders, according to people familiar with the matter. “In the face of this emergency, I think it is time to take historic decisions,” French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad said in an interview with Bloomberg. “And indeed, the question of eurobonds, for instance, is one of the mechanisms that we should be talking about.” Protecting Ukraine and expanding their own militaries could cost the continent’s major powers an additional $3.1 trillion over the next 10 years, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. NATO planners estimate the alliance will need to spend as much as 3.7% of GDP on defense, Bloomberg reported earlier. Just 23 out of the 32 North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries met the 2% spending target as of last year. “This is a once-in-a-generation moment for the collective security for our own continent,” Starmer told reporters in Paris. “Today’s informal meeting of European leaders was a vital first step in responding to that.” Funding options being discussed include triggering an escape clause to the EU’s fiscal rules to allow countries to boost funding without running afoul of the bloc’s regulations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed activating that mechanism for defense investments last week in a speech at the Munich Security Conference. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock signaled over the weekend that a significant plan for building strong defenses is in the works, saying “similar to the euro or the corona crisis, there is now a financial package for security in Europe.” “That will come in the near future,” she said, without giving additional details. Officials say that new spending plans won’t be unveiled until after the German election on Sunday in order to avoid stirring up controversy before the vote. Germany and the Netherlands have traditionally been against joint borrowing. Poland’s Tusk told reporters after the meeting that he received assurances that “many” billions of euros of outstanding European funds will be re-purposed for defense, “which can be mobilized immediately.” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has also been supportive of increasing the bloc’s fiscal capacity to finance common goods like security, saying last year: “common financing is desirable, whether by way of an increased fiscal capacity or by way of joint debt.” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said there’s been a big shift in perception among European allies on EU budget rules and joint borrowing after the past four days in Brussels and Munich. “Regarding joint European instruments, solidarity instruments like we used during pandemics or like we used for the green course — these need to be set up immediately,” Sakaliene said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Monday. “I think everybody or almost everybody is on board.” Denmark has traditionally maintained a cautious stance toward joint EU debt issuance as it’s advocated fiscal responsibility and preference for individual member states managing their own debts. But during Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Danish government has increasingly opened up for using such measures, and Denmark along with other countries are now pushing to ...

https://www.valley.town/newsroom/66d4e80904c9d079956da2e7/67b1b75b0a1f862d8f51ad3e Forget the Federal Reserve. To lower borrowing costs for Americans, the Trump administration says it is going to cut spending and increase energy production. Although President Trump continues urging the Fed to reduce short-term interest rates, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested recently that both he and Trump are focusing less on the central bank and more on bringing down the key rate set by financial markets: the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The task isn't easy. A benchmark for rates on everything from mortgages to corporate bonds, the 10-year yield shifts with market and economic forces largely beyond the control of the White House. Yields on Treasurys fall when their prices rise, so any effort to lower them would either need to reduce government borrowing -- thereby decreasing the supply of bonds -- or make U.S. debt more appealing to investors. The most obvious way that presidents can move Treasury yields is through fiscal policy. A smaller budget deficit means less government borrowing and a reduced supply of new Treasurys. That can push up the prices of existing bonds, driving their yields lower. Bessent recently leaned into this idea in an interview with Bloomberg Television, arguing that the 10-year yield could decline if the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency is able to reduce government spending. Administrations also have discretion over the types of debt they issue. To avoid putting pressure on longer-term yields, Treasury can issue more T-bills, which mature in a year or less, rather than notes and bonds that carry two- to 30-year maturities. Bessent had previously criticized the Biden administration for relying too much on T-bills and suggested that issuance of longer-term debt might need to increase. But he took a different position in ...

최근 USDJPY Long 아이디어 공유가 많이 되는 것 같아... 짤막하게 찾아본 재미있는 연구다. confirmation bias를 강화할지도 모르겠지만, 입맛에 맞는 실증연구였다고 합니다. 엔화 환율 변동이 일본의 수출에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석: 동일본 대지진 전후의 비교를 중심으로 (한국은행, 2023) https://www.bok.or.kr/portal/bbs/P0000556/view.do?nttId=10081456&menuNo=200440 동일본 대지진을 전후로 일본 수출경쟁력 악화로 엔저가 더이상 수출에 도움을 주지 않고 수입 물가 상승에 악영향을 미치면서 나쁜 엔저 기조가 형성 아베노믹스로 엔저를 만들어서 무역적자를 극복하려 했으나 엔저를 만들기 쉽지 않았음 수입/수출에서 USD 비중이 높으면 환율 영향력이 커짐 엔저 상태에서 COVID-19로 수입물가까지 오르니 무역적자가 터진 것 일본은 수출품 다양성이 줄어들고 특정 산업 집중도가 높아짐: 특히 자동차 수출이 1위 일본 수출은 중간재 비중이 높음: 환율-수출간 분석이 까다로운 이유 일본으로부터 중간재를 조달하는 최종 생산국의 환율의 평가절하는 최종재의 수출 증가를 유도 최종재의 수출 증가로 인한 중간재 수입 증가 일본은 엔화가 강해져도 수출이 증가하는 현상이 발생 동일본대지진 이후 일본 제조업의 공급망 글로벌 다변화 전략 현지 조달비중은 갈수록 높아지고 일본에서 현지로 조달하는 비중은 갈수록 낮아짐 중간재 수출 growth rate 둔화: 현지조달 비중이 높아지고 있다는 증거 동일본대지진 이후 일본 수출입의 구조적 변화: 글로벌 공급망 다변화, 아베노믹스, 수출경쟁력 악화 엔저가 생겨도 달러 기준 수출액은 늘지 않음 COVID-19 이후 급격한 엔저가 형성됐지만 수출은 늘지 않고 수입 물가만 올라가면서 역사상 최대 무역적자 기록