Trump’s Makeover of US Diplomacy Leaves Many Allies at a Loss - Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/doge-overestimates-the-value-of-business-skills-in-government?srnd=homepage-asia A newly elected president looking to inject private-sector energy and efficiency into a sclerotic government bureaucracy assigns the task to one of world’s best-known business leaders, the chief executive of a major American car company. To identify waste, cut spending and increase productivity, the businessman gathers around him a posse of bright young systems analysts and statisticians. Soon, they’ve identified millions of dollars in savings that can be achieved with a stroke of the presidential pen. If the assault on the US government by Elon Musk and his cohort of cost-cutters feels like a movie you’ve seen before, then either you’re old enough to remember the early 1960s or an admirer of The Best and the Brightest, David Halberstam’s magisterial account of the last time an American president empowered a businessman to trim the budget and reduce red tape. The president was John F. Kennedy, and the business leader he appointed as his secretary of defense was Robert McNamara, chief executive officer of Ford Motor Co. 새로 선출된 대통령이 경직된 정부 관료제에 민간 부문의 활력과 효율성을 주입하고자 하면서, 이 임무를 미국의 주요 자동차 회사 최고경영자인 세계적으로 유명한 기업가에게 맡긴다. 낭비를 식별하고, 지출을 줄이며, 생산성을 높이기 위해 이 기업가는 유능한 시스템 분석가들과 통계학자들로 구성된 팀을 꾸린다. 곧 이들은 대통령의 서명 한 번으로 수백만 달러의 절감 효과를 낼 수 있는 방안을 찾아낸다. 만약 엘론 머스크와 그의 비용 절감 팀이 미국 정부를 공격하는 모습이 어디선가 본 영화처럼 느껴진다면, 아마도 당신은 1960년대 초를 기억할 만큼 나이가 들었거나, 혹은 데이비드 핼버스탬의 걸작인 최고이자 가장 똑똑한 사람들의 팬일 것이다. 이 책은 미국 대통령이 예산을 삭감하고 관료적 절차를 줄이기 위해 기업가에게 권한을 부여한 마지막 사례를 기록하고 있다. 그 대통령은 존 F. 케네디였으며, 그가 국방부 장관으로 임명한 기업가는 포드 자동차의 최고경영자였던 로버트 맥나마라였다. Chilly, intellectual and understated, McNamara had a very different personality than Musk. But re-reading the book over recent weeks, I saw what they have in common: an arrogant certainty that the business techniques and practices they used in the private sector could be applied to “fix” government. Musk has his own version of McNamara’s famous “Whiz Kids” whom, as Halberstam writes, “he usually let loose to become his own independent sources of information with which to break institutional information networks.” Sound familiar? The Best and the Brightest is a cautionary tale. (The title is ironic.) McNamara proved to be a catastrophic failure at the Pentagon, as the qualities that helped him at Ford — above all, a relentless focus on placing data at the center of decision-making — prevented him from seeing what was happening on the ground in Vietnam. 차갑고 지적이며 과묵했던 맥나마라는 머스크와는 매우 다른 성격의 소유자였다. 하지만 최근 몇 주간 이 책을 다시 읽으면서, 나는 그들의 공통점을 발견했다. 바로 민간 부문에서 사용했던 경영 기법과 관행들을 정부를 '고치는 데' 적용할 수 있다는 오만한 확신이었다. 머스크도 맥나마라의 유명한 "천재 꼬마들"과 비슷한 자신만의 팀을 두고 있는데, 핼버스탬의 글처럼 "그는 이들을 풀어놓아 기존의 조직적 정보망을 깨뜨릴 수 있는 독립적인 정보원이 되게 했다." 익숙하지 않은가? 최고이자 가장 똑똑한 사람들은 경계의 이야기다. (제목은 반어적이다.) 맥나마라는 국방부에서 참담한 실패를 겪었는데, 포드에서 그를 성공으로 이끌었던 자질들 - 특히 의사결정의 중심에 데이터를 두는 것에 대한 집착 - 이 오히려 그가 베트남 현장에서 실제로 벌어지고 있는 일을 보지 못하게 만들었기 때문이다. A Persistent Notion ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-17/eu-joint-funds-gaining-support-as-leaders-confront-defense-needs Discussions are gathering pace in the European Union on how to increase defense spending, with joint financing becoming a realistic option for a growing list of leaders, according to people familiar with the matter. “In the face of this emergency, I think it is time to take historic decisions,” French Minister for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad said in an interview with Bloomberg. “And indeed, the question of eurobonds, for instance, is one of the mechanisms that we should be talking about.” Protecting Ukraine and expanding their own militaries could cost the continent’s major powers an additional $3.1 trillion over the next 10 years, according to a Bloomberg Economics analysis. NATO planners estimate the alliance will need to spend as much as 3.7% of GDP on defense, Bloomberg reported earlier. Just 23 out of the 32 North Atlantic Treaty Organization countries met the 2% spending target as of last year. “This is a once-in-a-generation moment for the collective security for our own continent,” Starmer told reporters in Paris. “Today’s informal meeting of European leaders was a vital first step in responding to that.” Funding options being discussed include triggering an escape clause to the EU’s fiscal rules to allow countries to boost funding without running afoul of the bloc’s regulations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed activating that mechanism for defense investments last week in a speech at the Munich Security Conference. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock signaled over the weekend that a significant plan for building strong defenses is in the works, saying “similar to the euro or the corona crisis, there is now a financial package for security in Europe.” “That will come in the near future,” she said, without giving additional details. Officials say that new spending plans won’t be unveiled until after the German election on Sunday in order to avoid stirring up controversy before the vote. Germany and the Netherlands have traditionally been against joint borrowing. Poland’s Tusk told reporters after the meeting that he received assurances that “many” billions of euros of outstanding European funds will be re-purposed for defense, “which can be mobilized immediately.” European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has also been supportive of increasing the bloc’s fiscal capacity to finance common goods like security, saying last year: “common financing is desirable, whether by way of an increased fiscal capacity or by way of joint debt.” Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene said there’s been a big shift in perception among European allies on EU budget rules and joint borrowing after the past four days in Brussels and Munich. “Regarding joint European instruments, solidarity instruments like we used during pandemics or like we used for the green course — these need to be set up immediately,” Sakaliene said in an interview with Bloomberg TV Monday. “I think everybody or almost everybody is on board.” Denmark has traditionally maintained a cautious stance toward joint EU debt issuance as it’s advocated fiscal responsibility and preference for individual member states managing their own debts. But during Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Danish government has increasingly opened up for using such measures, and Denmark along with other countries are now pushing to ...

https://www.valley.town/newsroom/66d4e80904c9d079956da2e7/67b1b75b0a1f862d8f51ad3e Forget the Federal Reserve. To lower borrowing costs for Americans, the Trump administration says it is going to cut spending and increase energy production. Although President Trump continues urging the Fed to reduce short-term interest rates, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested recently that both he and Trump are focusing less on the central bank and more on bringing down the key rate set by financial markets: the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The task isn't easy. A benchmark for rates on everything from mortgages to corporate bonds, the 10-year yield shifts with market and economic forces largely beyond the control of the White House. Yields on Treasurys fall when their prices rise, so any effort to lower them would either need to reduce government borrowing -- thereby decreasing the supply of bonds -- or make U.S. debt more appealing to investors. The most obvious way that presidents can move Treasury yields is through fiscal policy. A smaller budget deficit means less government borrowing and a reduced supply of new Treasurys. That can push up the prices of existing bonds, driving their yields lower. Bessent recently leaned into this idea in an interview with Bloomberg Television, arguing that the 10-year yield could decline if the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency is able to reduce government spending. Administrations also have discretion over the types of debt they issue. To avoid putting pressure on longer-term yields, Treasury can issue more T-bills, which mature in a year or less, rather than notes and bonds that carry two- to 30-year maturities. Bessent had previously criticized the Biden administration for relying too much on T-bills and suggested that issuance of longer-term debt might need to increase. But he took a different position in ...

최근 USDJPY Long 아이디어 공유가 많이 되는 것 같아... 짤막하게 찾아본 재미있는 연구다. confirmation bias를 강화할지도 모르겠지만, 입맛에 맞는 실증연구였다고 합니다. 엔화 환율 변동이 일본의 수출에 미치는 영향에 대한 실증분석: 동일본 대지진 전후의 비교를 중심으로 (한국은행, 2023) https://www.bok.or.kr/portal/bbs/P0000556/view.do?nttId=10081456&menuNo=200440 동일본 대지진을 전후로 일본 수출경쟁력 악화로 엔저가 더이상 수출에 도움을 주지 않고 수입 물가 상승에 악영향을 미치면서 나쁜 엔저 기조가 형성 아베노믹스로 엔저를 만들어서 무역적자를 극복하려 했으나 엔저를 만들기 쉽지 않았음 수입/수출에서 USD 비중이 높으면 환율 영향력이 커짐 엔저 상태에서 COVID-19로 수입물가까지 오르니 무역적자가 터진 것 일본은 수출품 다양성이 줄어들고 특정 산업 집중도가 높아짐: 특히 자동차 수출이 1위 일본 수출은 중간재 비중이 높음: 환율-수출간 분석이 까다로운 이유 일본으로부터 중간재를 조달하는 최종 생산국의 환율의 평가절하는 최종재의 수출 증가를 유도 최종재의 수출 증가로 인한 중간재 수입 증가 일본은 엔화가 강해져도 수출이 증가하는 현상이 발생 동일본대지진 이후 일본 제조업의 공급망 글로벌 다변화 전략 현지 조달비중은 갈수록 높아지고 일본에서 현지로 조달하는 비중은 갈수록 낮아짐 중간재 수출 growth rate 둔화: 현지조달 비중이 높아지고 있다는 증거 동일본대지진 이후 일본 수출입의 구조적 변화: 글로벌 공급망 다변화, 아베노믹스, 수출경쟁력 악화 엔저가 생겨도 달러 기준 수출액은 늘지 않음 COVID-19 이후 급격한 엔저가 형성됐지만 수출은 늘지 않고 수입 물가만 올라가면서 역사상 최대 무역적자 기록