[Barron's Tech] AI's Biggest Threat

2025.02.13

자국내 반도체 생산 증가를 위해, 반도체 관세를 25%, 50%, 심지어 100%까지 올릴수 있다고 함

트림퍼는 지난주 백악관에서 젠슨 황과 미팅을 했고, 'Good meeting'이라함

부통령 벤스는 AI 시스템과 반도체가 자국내서 만들어 지게될것이라 함

관세가 자국내 칩생산을 유리하게 보이게 하지만, 실제로는 수년안에 생산을 늘릴 방법은 없음

신규 fab 증설에 4년의 시간과 $10~20B의 돈이 들어감 + 전문가 필요

현재 대부분 주요 칩은 TSMC에서 생산됨, 바이든 정부의 Chips Act덕에 TSMC가 Arizona에 공장 증설중 2030 예상

하지만 Capa도 적고, 그나마 이것도 TSMC에서 전문가를 보내서 가능한거임

관세가 소비자에게 전가되면 AI 인프라에 대한 투자가 줄거나 없어질 수 있음

트럼프는 Stargate project를 발표, 4년 AI 인프라에 $500B 이상 투자 예정

UBS는 이중 40%가 server rack으로 사용 될 것으로 예상했는데, 여기에 50% 관세가 붙으면 $100B이 증가

최근 어닝에서 CAPEX 증가를 말한 빅테크들에도 관세가 악영향을 미칠 것

기자(Tea Kim)의 생각

: 칩에 대하 높은 관세 -> AI관련 주식 붕괴 -> 정부 관세 철회 -> 시장 재상승

* 원문

By Tae Kim | Wednesday, February 12

Reality Matters. The U.S. is poised to win the artificial intelligence race against China. All the necessary elements are in place.

American chip companies and AI models are innovating rapidly, with big advances in features and hardware expected this year. The Trump administration is wisely looking to relax energy and permitting regulations to alleviate energy bottlenecks, which have become the main hurdle in building the large AI data centers needed in the U.S. Global investors, meanwhile, seem willing to fund a massive AI infrastructure buildout with projects like Stargate.

But one significant threat looms on the horizon: tariffs. President Donald Trump may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with a fixation on chip tariffs.

Trump ...

[Barron's Tech] AI's Biggest Threat

[Barron's Tech] AI's Biggest Threat

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[Barron's] Archer Aviation Stock Drops as It Raises Money to Develop eVTOL for the Defense Industry

[Barron's] Financial Stocks Are on Fire. It Could Be Just the Start.

[WSJ] Tech Firms Want to Upend the Pentagon. The Old Defense Guard Has Some Lessons for Them.

[Barron's] When Bonds Make Sense in Your Portfolio—and When Cash Is the Better Option

[Barron's Tech] Nvidia's Next Move

[Barron's Tech] AI's Biggest Threat

[Barron's Tech] AI's Biggest Threat

[Barron's] Archer Aviation Stock Drops as It Raises Money to Develop eVTOL for the Defense Industry

[Barron's] Financial Stocks Are on Fire. It Could Be Just the Start.

[WSJ] Tech Firms Want to Upend the Pentagon. The Old Defense Guard Has Some Lessons for Them.

[Barron's] When Bonds Make Sense in Your Portfolio—and When Cash Is the Better Option

[Barron's Tech] Nvidia's Next Move

회원가입만 해도이 글을 무료로 읽을 수 있어요.

[Barron's] Archer Aviation Stock Drops as It Raises Money to Develop eVTOL for the Defense Industry

[Barron's] Financial Stocks Are on Fire. It Could Be Just the Start.

[WSJ] Tech Firms Want to Upend the Pentagon. The Old Defense Guard Has Some Lessons for Them.

[Barron's] When Bonds Make Sense in Your Portfolio—and When Cash Is the Better Option

[Barron's Tech] Nvidia's Next Move

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이 글을 무료로 읽을 수 있어요.