미국 주식의 상승 모멘텀이 깨지면서 월별, 주별 성과가 마이너스로 돌아섰다. 반면 골드를 비롯한 원자재는 계속 상승흐름을 이어나가는 모습. 미국 보다는 유럽, 중국, 한국 등 다른 곳의 주식이 반등하면서 US-exceptionalism에 금이 가고 있다. 요즘은 주위에 누구한테 물어봐도 한국 주식은 하는게 아니라고 하면서 미국 주식을 언급하고 누구나 엔비디아, 테슬라 등 Mag7 주식에 대해 낙관론을 펼치고 있다. 고점의 신호다.
한 주 동안 읽었던 경제지표, 월가 동향 정리 (NotebookLM, Grok3, neoeo님 감마계산기 이용)
US
Upside Potential:
Earnings Growth: SocGen anticipates the S&P 500 reaching 6,500 points by April 2025, based on the expectation of continued acceleration in earnings growth and solid nominal GDP growth.
Individual Stock Performance: Goldman Sachs suggested in February 2025 that the current market favors stock selection for alpha generation due to individual factors driving the market.
Individual vs. Index Volatility: Individual stocks have high volatility while the overall index volatility remains low3.
Low Correlation: The average correlation among S&P 500 stocks is low, at the bottom 6% of the past 20 years
"Long Gamma" State: As of February 18, 2025, market makers being in a "long gamma" state is thought to be preventing sharp falls. When market makers are “long gamma”, the rise is limited because market makers sell S&P 500 futures to hedge when the S&P increases. A stable movement within a narrow range is produced as a result.
→ 더 이상 유효하지 않음. 현재 시장은 숏 감마 상태
Downside Potential:
Weaker Economic Data: As of February 17, 2025, lower than expected retail sales data led to a decline in treasury yields and the dollar, with uncertainty on whether this signals disinflation or economic slowdown.
January retail sales significantly underperformed market consensus. This included both headline and "control group" figures. The "control group" excludes food service, building materials, gasoline and auto.
The weakness in retail sales may have been amplified by January's increase in goods prices, as retail sales data isn't adjusted for inflation. The figures reflect nominal values, and so real retail sales were likely even less than the data suggests.
The Atlanta Fed lowered its estimate for Q1 GDP growth from 2.9% to 2.3% due to the lower than expected retail data.
There are a number of possible explanations for weak retail sales data:
Consumer use of leverage Financial institutions expanded consumer lending around November and December, while disposable income growth slowed. Consumers may have been leveraging small loans to maintain spending, making January's decline expected.
Extreme Weather: Record cold and LA wildfires may have negatively affected retail sales.
Preemptive Buying: Consumers may have increased spending in prior months in anticipation of tariffs.
Strong sales in December January's decline may have simply been a correction after strong sales in December.
Michelle Bowman noted that the 4th quarter GDP slowed, but private domestic final purchases (excluding volatile inventory investment) still showed strong momentum.
Waller noted that household have sufficient liquid assets to maintain spending.
→ 소매판매 지표는 안 좋게 나왔지만 연준 인사들의 발언을 보면 소비 여력이 크게 떨어진 건 아니라는 분석. 1월 데이터가 일시적인 측면일 수 있음.
1. Inflation
Harker (No Voting Rights)
Statement: "The January CPI rise wasn’t entirely unexpected; over the past 10 years, January CPI has exceeded market forecasts 9 out of 10 times."
Perspective: Suggests data may be distorted ...
